Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Sebastian Baez Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Carabelli has shown slightly lower performance on their second serve compared to Baez, capturing 44.14% of points versus Baez's 45.98% over the past six months. Is this a crucial factor? It often aligns closely with match outcomes.
• In returning games, Carabelli has outshined Baez on their opponent's second serve, winning 48.32% of points against Baez's 46.09%.
• For first serve returns, Baez leads with 33.36% of points won over Carabelli's 28.84%, indicating an edge in this crucial aspect of play.
• When under pressure, Carabelli has prevailed in 53.72% of breakpoints, whereas Baez stops 50.89% of threats, giving Carabelli a slight advantage.
• Over the last year, Carabelli leads in overall match success, winning 64.71% of their matches compared to Baez's 46.43%.
• Both players excel on clay, but Baez has a slightly better win rate with 70% compared to Carabelli's 65%.
• Carabelli has been more successful in lower-tier tournaments, boasting a 76.92% win rate in Challengers/ITF games, while Baez has achieved a 58.06% win rate on the main tour.
• In direct encounters, Baez has the upper hand with a 6-2 match record against Carabelli.
• In deciding set scenarios, Baez has dominated their past encounters, winning every time they went the distance.
• Carabelli excels in deciding sets overall, having won 70% over the past year, contrasting with Baez's 44% success rate in such situations.
• When facing tougher competition, Baez plays against higher-ranked opponents (average rank 79.43) than Carabelli (average rank 192.74), possibly giving Baez more exposure to high-level play.
• Both players have similar breakpoint conversion rates, with Carabelli at 35.41% and Baez at 34.95%, indicating closely contested scenarios when breaking serve opportunities arise.

Editorial Prediction (May 20, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming match is set to be an intriguing clash as Carabelli and Baez bring their distinct proficiencies to the court. Carabelli's strength lies in their break-point resilience and consistent win record in lower-tier events, showcasing superior match consistency over the past year.

Baez, however, holds supremacy in head-to-head encounters, as their past battles exhibit a stronger command in critical sets. Additionally, their exposure to higher-ranked opponents might have honed their competitive edge on bigger stages.

Considering both players' prowess on clay, Baez's remarkable record on this surface slightly tips the scales in their favor. Coupled with a superior first-serve return game, Baez seems well-prepared to utilize these advantages.

While Carabelli presents a formidable challenge, especially if the match requires a deciding set where they thrive, Baez's track record, particularly in previous match-ups between the two, positions them as the more likely victor in this encounter.